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<< JRScience Home   Volume 13 No.1 June 2002  << Back to Volume Home

FORECASTS OF A SET OF FUTURE OBSERVATIONS OF PAKISTAN'S PRIVATE CONSUMPTIONS AND INVESTMENTS: A BAYESIAN APPROACH UNDER M-STAGE MODEL

 Hayat M. Awan

Institute of Management Sciences, Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan, Pakistan.

 Abstract:

 In management and administration, the need for planning and control is important because lead time for managerial decision making ranges from several years or more to a few days or even hours. Information about future events from forecast is usually a critical input into a wide range of managerial and administrative decision-making process. In this paper the problem of forecasting the private consumptions and investments of Pakistan where the prior knowledge may be derived in M-stage in the manner first introduced by Lindley and Smith [1972] have been discussed. The predictive distribution of the future set of observations is derived under the M-stage model and forecast of the private consumptions and investments of Pakistan for 1981-82 to 1987-88 have been computed. 

Keywords: Bayesian Inference, Forecasting, M-Stage Model, Informative Prior, Posterior and Predictive Distributions, Predictive Interval, Variance-Covariance Matrix.